National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
| 5 Day Forecast |
000 FXUS65 KBOU 290841 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 240 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008 .SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A LITTLE WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR LIES OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS. THE LOW LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING WILL CREATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION TODAY...AND SOME PLACES SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AROUND SOUTH PARK WHICH SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF HEAT AND MOISTURE. FLOW IS LIGHT BUT CELL GROWTH SHOULD BE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO LOW LEVEL FLOW... SO STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THAT DIRECTION. HIGHEST POPS ALREADY PLAYED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...AND I WILL REMOVE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE AMBITIOUS BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW I WILL STICK WITH THEM...NEARER THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING IN THE EVENING AS THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY SOME STRATUS LATE NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. .LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH A DECENT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW GETTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK UPWARD MOTION PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY WELL INTO MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. FOR MOISTURE ...IT IS FAIR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S F THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A WEAKER THETA-E AXIS IS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY ...THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AREA...WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE MID LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS. FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY...IT IS ESPECIALLY STRONG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE SMALL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A TAD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH MAINLY 10%S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WILL LOWER CURRENT POP GRIDS ON SUNDAY TO 10-20%S...WITH POOR MOISTURE AND CAPPING IN MIND. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S. SUNDAY`S ARE 1-2 C COOLER THAN SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THEY SHOWING THE FEATURE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT`S AXIS MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AROUND WEDNESDAY. THESE LATEST MODELS RUNS LOOK A BIT DIFFERENT FROM WHAT I SAW LAST NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ GIMMESTAD/RJK
NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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