National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
| 5 Day Forecast |
000 FXUS65 KBOU 292106 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 305 PM MDT THU JUL 29 2010 .SHORT TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS CFWA. CURRENT INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.30 INCHES AT KBOU AND AROUND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH AT KNWT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. NO STORMS YET ON THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A NICE BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS AND EASTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. DECENT STORM FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE HAYMAN BURN AREA WHICH WAS DUMPING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OTHER SECTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE EVENING. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLAINS STILL A BIT CAPPED WHICH IS HINDERING STORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE FOOTHILLS STORMS MOVING ONTO PLAINS ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER. INTERACTION FROM THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR. HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH CHANCE POPS ADJACENT PLAINS. FURTHER EAST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WITH DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STORMS COULD DUMP UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RADAR INDICATING STORM CELLS ARE MOVING AROUND 10 KTS SO STORM MOVEMENT MAY KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING COLLIDING OF STORMS. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE NAM KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE LOW POPS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL KEEP MINS RATHER MILD MOST AREAS. ON FRIDAY... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL PATTERN. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ACROSS CFWA...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH TO 1.4 INCHES ACROSS PLAINS AND AROUND NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN GET STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. NO REAL DYNAMIC FORCING TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS FOR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ACROSS PLAINS... LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOW SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA AFTER 18Z. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH SHOULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP ACROSS PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD LIMIT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS...LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST. STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. MODELS INDICATE STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS LOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES FOR PLAINS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY HARD TO PICK OUT ANY INDIVIDUAL WAVES IN THE FLOW BUT PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT OVER AN INCH. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL HIGHS WITH READING INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES HEADING TOWARD DENVER AREA WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW STORMS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITION FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FEET AGL POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z WHICH WILL AFFECT ILS APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH 03Z WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT DRAINAGE PATTERN BY 06Z WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AND STRATUS FROM FORMING. ON FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR STORMS AFTER 18Z...MAINLY ALONG FOOTHILLS WEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH CEILINGS OF 5000-6000 FEET AGL COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AFFECT ILS APPROACHES. SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS AREA AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 12 KTS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ D-L/SWE
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