National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 052234 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
332 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN CO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPWARD QG ASCENT WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM12
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE AFTN BUT WILL GO WITH
MINIMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES. AS FOR THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...NOT SURE SNOW WILL REALLY DEVELOP UNTIL WE GET THE
NORTHERLY SURGE MONDAY EVENING. WL STICK WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN THE EXTEND FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH COLORADO MONDAY WILL
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT DUE TO THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE UP TO 4
INCHES WITH JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH...OVER THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. WILL GO WITH A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
SNOW ON TUESDAY.

WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK TROUGH TO PASS OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
APPEARS ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIMING FIGURING OUT WHAT THE PATTERN WILL BE. IN GENERAL...MODELS
WANT TO HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A WEAK TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING AROUND IT OR PASSING THROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
LOW...WITH JUST A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND MAY WARM ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 18Z...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND SLGT CHC OF SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS 00Z TUESDAY. UPCOMING TAFS
WL REFLECT ILS CIGS/VSBYS ON OR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY ONCE NORTHERLY
SFC WINDS SPREAD INTO THE DENVER AREA.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion